5am Hurricane Hector Update

500 AM HST Wed Aug 08 2018
…POWERFUL HURRICANE HECTOR CONTINUES TO CHURN WESTWARD
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.4N 153.9W
ABOUT 240 MI…390 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 425 MI…690 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…956 MB…28.23 INCHES

At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hector was located
near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 153.9 West. Hector is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue through Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Hector is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days. However, Hector will likely remain a powerful
hurricane through Thursday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles

Hurricane Hector has been showing some signs of weakening overnight.
The eye is somewhat less distinct in infrared satellite imagery
early this morning, but it appears that Hector remains a powerful
system based on data provided by a reconnaissance aircraft from the
U.S. Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron. The
extensive sampling of the cyclone during this mission indicated
surface winds were up to 108 kt. In addition, they sampled
flight-level winds up to 135 kt at 1037z during their final pass
through Hector. All of the satellite fix agencies (PHFO, JTWC, and
SAB) showed current subjective Dvorak intensity estimates of 6.0/115
kt. The latest CIMSS ADT estimate is 5.0/102 kt. For this advisory
we will use a blend of these intensity estimates, and maintain
Hector at 110 kt. Hector continues to move due west, or 270/14 kt.

Only minor adjustments to the forecast track have been made. Hector
will continue to move westward along the southern periphery of a
strong subtropical ridge to the north of the main Hawaiian Island
chain through Thursday night. Starting around day 3, Hector is
expected to begin gradually gaining latitude as it passes around the
southwestern edge of this ridge, and is under increasing influence
from an upper-level trough to the west of longitude 170W. This
motion will likely persist through days 4 and 5.

Hector remains in a relatively low shear environment, but it is
moving across marginally warm sea surface temperatures. This is
expected to cause a gradual weakening trend during the next day or
so. Afterward, Hector is expected to change little in intensity
through day 3. The official forecast continues to show a weakening
trend for days 4 and 5 as it starts to gain latitude and it moves
over slightly cooler water temperatures. The latest intensity
forecast closely follows the ICON guidance, which shows Hector
remaining stronger than the SHIPS guidance indicates.

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