Monday Olivia Overview

All eyes are on hurricane Olivia to our east. For the time being, light to moderate trades have returned, which will gradually increase as Hurricane Olivia begins to approach the state tonight into Tuesday. Olivia will move through the eastern end of the state late Tuesday into Wednesday as a tropical storm, then passing south of Oahu and Kauai Wednesday into Thursday. A wet pattern with gusty trades will likely hold Thursday through Friday as Olivia continues westward and away from the state. A drying trend appears likely from east to west Friday through the weekend.

Details: Mostly dry and stable conditions, with light to moderate trades will hold across the state for the time being. Clouds and showers will focus over the typical windward and mountain locations. Rainfall accumulations will remain light ahead of Olivia, approaching the state from the east. Olivia will approach the islands Tuesday afternoon, then move across Maui and the Big Island late Tuesday through Wednesday. Olivia is forecast to continue on a westward track…passing south of Oahu and Kauai Wednesday into Thursday.

Regardless of the final track of what will likely be tropical storm Olivia moving through the area, remember that impacts can occur well beyond its center position. If the current forecast comes to pass, impacts will include damaging winds, heavy rainfall, life-threatening surf and minor storm surge across vulnerable low-lying coastal areas. All are encouraged to take advantage of the generally favorable weather conditions expected before Olivia arrives…to ensure you hurricane action plan is ready.

Looking Ahead:  The wet pattern with gusty trades will remain in place Thursday through Friday, as Olivia tracks westward and away from the state. A gradual drying trend from east to west is depicted across the state Friday through the weekend.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map / Here’s the latest Vog Forecast Animation / Here’s the Vog Information website

Marine Environmental Conditions: Light to moderate winds will stick around thanks to high pressure northwest of the state. As Hurricane Olivia approaches the state from the east, winds will be on the increase. Anticipate this increase to begin Tuesday.

Some of the swell energy from Hurricane Olivia is starting to show on the buoys. This energy is expected to build further through Tuesday, peaking Tuesday night into Wednesday. This swell will likely reach warning levels along east facing shores of the Big Island and possibly for the smaller islands. The seas and surf forecast will be highly dependent on the track and intensity Olivia takes as it nears the area.

Otherwise, a small southwest swell originating from the Tasman Sea will bring inconsistent, small surf to south facing shores through Tuesday.

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