NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center today announced that climate conditions point to an
above-normal hurricane season in the Central Pacific Basin this year.
For 2015, the outlook calls for a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a
near-normal season, and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. We expect 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to
affect the central Pacific this season. An average season has 4-5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical
depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
This outlook is based upon the expectation of El Niño continuing and possibly strengthening as
the hurricane season progresses. El Niño decreases the vertical wind shear over the tropical central
Pacific, favoring the development of more and stronger tropical cyclones. El Niño also favors more
westward-tracking storms from the eastern Pacific into the central Pacific. This combination typically
leads to an above-normal Central Pacific hurricane season.
This outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity in the central Pacific
basin and does not predict whether, or how many, of these systems will affect Hawaii.
NOAA issued its Central Pacific hurricane outlook at a news conference in Honolulu, and urged
Hawaii residents to be fully prepared before the hurricane season, which begins June 1 and runs until
November 30th.
“I encourage everyone to become weather-ready by signing up for weather alerts, developing and
practicing a family emergency plan, and building an emergency kit before hurricane season begins,” said
Tom Evans, acting director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center. “Now is the time to make sure
that you and your family are ready and prepared for the 2015 hurricane season, which starts June 1st.”
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center continuously monitors weather conditions, employing a
network of satellites, land- and ocean-based sensors and aircraft reconnaissance missions operated by
NOAA and its partners. This array of data supplies the information for complex computer modeling and
human expertise that serves as the basis for the hurricane center’s track and intensity forecasts that
extend out five days. The seasonal hurricane outlook is produced in collaboration with NOAA’s Climate
Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service.
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