5pm Hilda Update

Even though the track shows way South of the Island as well as far away from us in Kohala, we are still expecting some rain impact. Stay tuned to KNKR for continuous updates.

500 PM HST TUE AUG 11 2015
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
OF HILDA IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH IS
NOW WELL DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS WON THE BATTLE...AND IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE 38
KNOTS AT 260 DEGREES BY UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS. GIVEN THE POOR
SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HILDA...IT COMES AS NO SURPRISE THAT THE
LATEST SATELLITE FIXES FROM SAB...PHFO AND JTWC HAVE WEAKENED THE
SYSTEM AS WELL. THE LATEST DATA T NUMBERS WERE 3.5/55 KNOTS AT ALL
THREE AGENCIES...SO THIS WAS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WITH THE
03Z ADVISORY. TRACKING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER VIA VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR WAS SET AT 270 
DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS.

THE TRACK OF HILDA WAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK 
WITH THIS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS 
GUIDANCE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE INITIAL MOTION 
OF THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST...LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO THE 
INITIALIZATION WHICH IS BASED ON A NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE 
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 18 TO 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST DISREGARDED THE INITIAL NORTHWEST MOTION SEEN IN THE 
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS...AND TAKES THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WESTWARD AT A 
SPEED CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

PERSISTENT STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINING IN PLACE 
OVER HILDA...ALONG WITH THE ENTRAINMENT OF VERY DRY MID/UPPER 
LEVEL AIR AS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO 
STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH ICON...AND CALLS FOR 
HILDA TO WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR 
THURSDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE U.S. AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE DEPARTED ON THERE WAY TO 
FLY ANOTHER MISSION INTO HILDA THIS EVENING. THE VALUABLE DATA FROM 
THIS MISSION SHOULD HELP REFINE OUR FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY 
FORECASTS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0300Z 17.0N 152.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 17.1N 152.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 17.2N 153.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 17.2N 154.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 17.2N 155.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 17.0N 158.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED