1100 AM HST FRI AUG 21 2015 THE INITIAL VISIBLE SECTOR IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER EAST OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. THIS INDICATES KILO IS STILL FEELING THE EFFECTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR AND IS HAVING DIFFICULTY GETTING FULLY ORGANIZED. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE FIX AGENCIES CAME IN AT 45 KT FROM PHFO...HELD HIGH DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS...30 KT FROM SAB AND 25 KT FROM JTWC. THE CIRA/RAMMB MULTIPLATFORM SATELLITE WIND ANALYSIS INDICATED 35 KT IN KILO/S NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE IS HELD AT 35 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATER...ABOVE 29C IN THE LATEST ANALYSIS...AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ANALYSIS FROM RAMMB-CIRA INDICATES INCREASING VALUES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. EASTERLY SHEAR...JUST UNDER 10 KT IN THE 1800 UTC CIMSS ESTIMATE...IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER TODAY...AND THEN REMAIN RATHER WEAK THROUGH DAY 3. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT THE STORM WILL STRENGTHEN...AND THE LATEST DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS AGREE. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS. KILO IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING AT 285/14 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE MODELS ALSO PROJECT THAT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AT ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL OBJECTIVE AIDS SHOW A SHARPER TURN TO THE NORTHEAST THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ECMWF IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER AND KEEPS THE CYCLONE WEAKER AND MOVES IT MUCH FARTHER WEST BEFORE SLOWING DOWN FAR SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS...THEN NUDGED WESTWARD TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND HWRF. THE FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN BEFORE AFTER DAY 3 WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE OBJECTIVE AIDS BUT TAKES A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE WEAKER AND MORE WESTWARD ECMWF SOLUTION IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PRESENT ORGANIZATION OF KILO...BUT THE NOD FOR NOW IS CONSERVATIVELY BEING GIVEN TOWARD THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. GIVEN THIS FORECAST TRACK...INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KILO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE WC-130J WILL BEGIN FLIGHTS INTO KILO THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AT 12 HOURLY INTERVALS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...PROVIDING CRITICAL INSIGHT INTO KILO/S STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY. WITH THE G-IV AIRCRAFT TASKED IN THE ATLANTIC...THE WC-130J IS ALSO SCHEDULED TO DO A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON SATURDAY MORNING IN ORDER TO SAMPLE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE NORTH OF KILO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 13.0N 153.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 13.7N 155.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 14.5N 158.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 15.5N 161.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 16.3N 163.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 18.0N 163.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 19.5N 163.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 21.0N 161.5W 85 KT 100 MPH