Kilo is new Storm 5am Update

Remember, this track can change. We here in Kohala can receive rain from this storm as early as late tonight. Residents on Kauai should take all precautions as Kilo is forecast to become a hurricane with 100mph winds.

Also, there is another disturbance to keep an eye on, currently called Four-C, which should not affect the Hawaiian Islands, but that, of course, can change.

500 AM HST FRI AUG 21 2015
 
AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE 
HAS BEEN EXPANDING SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHILE TRACKING 
STEADILY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
/LLCC/ IS ESTIMATED TO BE ON SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THIS DEEP 
CONVECTION...WITH BI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY HELPING TO HIGHLIGHT LOW CLOUD 
MOTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH APPEARS TO BE A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THIS 
POSITION ESTIMATE CORRELATES WELL WITH SHEAR EVALUATIONS FROM 
UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATE EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE 
ORDER OF 15 TO 20 KT. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 
1.0/25 KT TO 3.0/45 KT...AND WITH THE LLCC ESTIMATED TO BE 
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE SYSTEM IS BEING 
UPGRADED TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM WITH THIS ADVISORY...AND
HAS BEEN NAMED KILO. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 295/14 KT...WITH
THE STORM BEING DRIVEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ON THIS GENERAL TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...
WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THEREAFTER. AFTER 
THIS TIME...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES INTO THIS WEAKNESS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS TURN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WITH THE HWRF REMAINING ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS ON THE WEST SIDE...DUE
TO THE ECMWF...WHICH REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE
UPDATED TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE LEFT...IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF A WELL CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH DAY 3...AND
LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE HWRF...GFS AND GFDL ON DAYS 4 AND 5. 

KILO IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATER...ABOVE 29C IN THE LATEST
ANALYSIS...AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ANALYSIS FROM RAMMB-CIRA
INDICATES INCREASING VALUES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. EASTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER TODAY...AND THEN REMAIN RATHER
WEAK THROUGH DAY 3. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT THE STORM WILL
STRENGTHEN...AND THE LATEST DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS AGREE.
WHILE THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS...
THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN SLOWED...AND REPRESENTS A BLEND
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
THE U.S. 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON /WRS/ WILL BEGIN
FLIGHTS INTO KILO THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AT 12
HOURLY INTERVALS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...PROVIDING CRITICAL INSIGHT
INTO KILO/S STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY. WITH THE G-IV AIRCRAFT TASKED
IN THE ATLANTIC...THE 53RD WRS IS ALSO SCHEDULED TO DO A SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON SATURDAY MORNING IN ORDER TO SAMPLE THE
STRENGTH OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KILO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 12.7N 151.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 13.5N 154.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 14.2N 157.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 15.2N 160.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 16.3N 162.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 18.4N 162.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 20.0N 162.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 21.5N 161.5W   85 KT 100 MPH