Looking more & more like Mauna Kea is doing her magic again as Ignacio is now expected to pass a bit further North & East and is weakening even faster than was thought!
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 107
KNOTS...A MAXIMUM SFMR WIND OF 94 KT...AND A 961 MB SURFACE
PRESSURE ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE EYE. THUS...HAVE LOWERED THE
INTENSITY OF IGNACIO TO 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR
ANALYSIS SHOWS IGNACIO IS NOW EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...WHICH IS CONFIRMED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BY THE RESTRICTED
OUTFLOW IN THAT QUADRANT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE RECON
REPORTS SHOW THAT THE RING OF EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS OPENED UP...
AND THE EYE HAS NOW BECOME CLOUD-FILLED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/10. IGNACIO IS ABOUT TO GET ENTANGLED
WITH A WEAK BUT DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
MORE NORTHWARD IN THE SHORT TERM IN THE FACE OF INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLIES...WITH A BEND BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AFTER 24
HOURS AS IGNACIO BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEARED. THIS IS A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS THROUGH 24 HOURS...THEN SHIFTS
TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE BY 48 HOURS AND BEYOND. LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A STRONGER DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FAR
TO THE NORTHWEST OF HAWAII IS EXPECTED TO STEER IGNACIO MORE
NORTHWARD AGAIN.
THE DYNAMIC MODELS SHOW SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
OVER IGNACIO OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND THUS RAPID WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED. IT IS INTERESTING THAT IT HAS TAKEN THE SHIPS
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THIS LONG TO INDICATE THE MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AS
DEPICTED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW. IN ANY
CASE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WEAKER AND IS NOW LOWER THAN
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THE SHEAR MAY WEAKEN A BIT
TEMPORARILY DURING THE DAYS 4-5 TIME FRAME...BUT BY THEN IGNACIO
WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 19.0N 149.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 20.0N 150.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 21.1N 151.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 22.1N 152.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 23.2N 154.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 24.9N 157.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 26.9N 160.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 30.0N 163.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
