Nora’s path has changed but also her intensity has diminished. It appears that as it gets closer to our Island, it will have winds in the 25-30mph range and have little storm effect to us. However, as always, remain aware of the storm and the chance of forecast changes.
1100 AM HST TUE OCT 13 2015 NORA REMAINED RATHER POORLY ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...BUT CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...CB KEPT DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER. COLD...HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OUT FROM THE CB TOPS KEPT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HIDDEN ON NIGHTTIME INFRARED IMAGERY. VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM 1730 AND 1800 UTC SHOWED THE LLCC VISIBLE THROUGH THIN CIRRUS HIGH CLOUDS PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION. SINCE THE 200 AM CENTER POSITION WAS UNCERTAIN...I HAVE ADJUSTED THE 200 AM POSITION TO SMOOTH OUT THE STORM MOTION. THE INITIAL MOTION WILL BE SET AT 300 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES WERE 2.0/30 KNOTS FROM PHFO AND SAB AND 2.5/35 KT FROM JTWC ...WHILE THE UW-CIMSS ADT WAS 2.4/34 KNOTS. A 616 AM WINDSAT PASS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AXIS WITH STRONGER WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CENTER AND ONLY LIGHT WINDS TO THE SOUTH. I HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT WITH TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING SOUTH BETWEEN 150W AND 160W IS HELPING PRODUCE RATHER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...VWS...OVER NORA WITH SHIPS SHOWING 29 KT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND UW-CIMSS SHOWING 31 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE...SST...WILL REMAIN A RATHER WARM 28 DEGREES CELSIUS AS NORA MOVES NORTHWEST...BUT THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR NORA TO KEEP WEAKENING. NORA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION ON WEDNESDAY AND TO A POST-TROPICAL/REMANNT LOW BY SATURDAY. NORA IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRODUCED BY THE DEEP TROUGH ALOFT TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE WEST IN THE SHORT TERM AS A RESULT OF RE-BESTING THE 200 AM POSITION. NORA IS STILL EXPECTED TO CURVE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BEYOND THAT...NORA IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST AS IT BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM MOVING ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL EAST NORTHEAST FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 14.5N 149.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 14.9N 150.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 15.6N 150.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 16.0N 151.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 16.5N 151.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 16.9N 152.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 16.5N 155.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z 16.5N 158.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW