AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 141.3 WEST. OLAF IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OLAF IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OLAF HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH A 10 TO 15 NM WIDE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING
OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY. THIS
RING REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY COLD...AND THE EYE SUFFICIENTLY WARM...TO
YIELD A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 6.5/127 KT. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY PHFO...SAB AND UW-CIMSS ADT AND SATCON ANALYSES...AND AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 130 KT WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR FOR THIS ADVISORY...285/09 KT...IS
EXACTLY AS IT WAS EARLIER...WITH OLAF SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING TRACK PHILOSOPHY IS PRESENTED
BY THE LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE. OLAF IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO ITS NORTH. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE
WILL KEEP THE RIDGE WEAK ON THURSDAY...WITH OLAF THEN MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BETWEEN 145W AND 150W LONGITUDE INTO FRIDAY.
THIS TREND OF TURNING TO THE RIGHT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN EVEN SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDUCING A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON DAY 5. THE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS
REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THEY HAVE
FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF CYCLES...LEADING TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT
OLAF WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE UPDATED
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AGAIN LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS NEAR THE GFEX AND TVCN THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCN AND GFS IN
ACCELERATING OLAF NORTHEASTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES INDICATE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 5
KT OR LESS...WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OLAF IN A COL BETWEEN
HIGH-LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED TO THE DISTANT EAST AND WEST...WHICH IS
SUPPLYING OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. SOME SMALL
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT AS OLAF WILL
REMAIN IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH SSTS OVER 29C. DIFFICULT TO
ANTICIPATE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES MAY COMPLICATE THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST INTENSITY FORECAST...BUT THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY. MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO
LOWERING SSTS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS IVCN BUT BELOW SHIPS GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM...AND IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN IVCN IN WEAKENING OLAF AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS LGEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 10.6N 141.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 11.3N 142.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 12.2N 144.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 13.2N 145.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 14.4N 146.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 17.1N 147.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 20.0N 147.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 22.5N 145.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
