Don’t let your guard down, but it appears that Lester is weakening slightly and it’s path will be a bit further North of The Big Island, thus allowing us not to feel the strongest force. All good news. We in Kohala should feel some effects late today. Of course, the path can change at any moment. Lester still has 110mph winds.
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 148.4W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH.
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lester was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 148.4 West. Lester is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
Latest satellite images show that Lester remains a strong and well- organized hurricane, with a solid ring of cold cloud tops surrounding the eye. However, the eye has been shrinking, and eye temperatures have cooled somewhat since the previous advisory, while the outflow has diminished in the southern semicircle. These observations indicate that Lester has weakened somewhat overnight. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from HFO/SAB/GTW ranged from 5.5/102 kt to 6.0/115 kt, while UW-CIMSS ADT yielded 5.3/97 kt. As Lester appears weaker since reconnaissance aircraft last determined the intensity was near 100 kt, the current intensity for this advisory is set to 95 kt. Another reconnaissance flight into Lester is planned for later this morning, while the G-V will conduct one more synoptic surveillance mission later today before heading back to the mainland. The initial motion vector for this advisory is 295/12 kt, and Lester has been tracking to the right of the previous forecast track overnight. Lester is expected to track toward the west-northwest on the southern flank of a low-to mid-level ridge over the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest and north at the end of the forecast is expected as Lester nears the southwestern and western periphery of the ridge. On day 5, Lester will be close to a mid- latitude trough approaching from the west. While the spread in the guidance suite increases at that time, the earlier periods of the forecast feature tightly clustered guidance. The updated forecast is essentially an update of the previous, and lies very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. The updated forecast track has Lester passing the latitude of the Big Island this morning, allowing the hurricane watch to be discontinued. The updated intensity forecast indicates that Lester has reached peak intensity, and will steadily weaken through the forecast period, as depicted by nearly all the intensity guidance. Initially, some of that weakening may be due to a temporary decrease in water temperatures, as Lester is currently tracking over the area where Hurricane Madeline rapidly intensified earlier this week. Overall, the weakening trend is based on persistent and gradually increasing vertical wind shear supplied by the southerly flow aloft between an upper-level trough near Hawaii and an upper-level anticyclone to the east, although significantly decreasing water temperatures on day 4 and 5 will contribute as well. The official intensity forecast closely follows the LGEM and SHIPS guidance. A Hurricane Watch remains in place for portions of the main Hawaiian Islands as the official forecast still brings the system close to portions of the chain. Although forecast model guidance has been stable for the past couple of days, and the official forecast keeps the center of Lester northeast of the islands, a westward deviation from the official forecast track could bring profound impacts to Hawaii. In addition, users are also reminded that impacts from hurricanes can occur well away from the center.