It should be noted that another tropical storm has formed in the Central Pacific. However, Ulika is currently forecast to not have a lot of effect on us; if anything, will be a rain event as the winds are currently peaking at 40mph with some intensification within 24 hours, but it should be a depression or less by the time it gets close to us. Complete info under the storm image.
500 AM HST TUE SEP 27 2016 Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Storm Ulika (oo-Lee-kah) has become better organized overnight, with persistent deep convection being maintained over the low-level circulation center. Microwave imagery from a 27/1029Z GCOM and 27/1210Z AMSUB pass support a strengthening system, showing an eyewall feature developing. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC range from 2.0/30kt to 3.0/45kt, with the ADT from UW-CIMSS showing 3.3/51kt. Based on the improving satellite presentation, the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt with this advisory. The initial motion of the system is based on satellite animations, and is set at 035 degrees at 4 kt. The system is expected to continue to track toward the northeast, into a weakness in the mid and upper-level ridge resulting from an upper level low to the north of the cyclone, through tonight. Ulika is expected to make a turn toward the north on Wednesday and Wednesday night, followed by a turn toward the west Thursday as increasing westerly vertical wind shear results in a more shallow system steered by the low level trade wind flow. The system is expected to continue on a westward track with a gradual increase in forward speed through the end of the week, and weaken into a remnant low on Friday or Friday night. The official forecast track has been nudged to the east of of the previous advisory due to the increasingly deep and stronger system, and is close to the multi-model GFEX and TVCN consensus guidance. Some intensification of Ulika is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours as the system remains over 28C SSTs, with minimal dry air entrainment and weak vertical wind shear. In fact, SHIPS guidance shows a 35 percent probability of rapid intensification of 25 kt or more in 24 hours, so the system could increase more than currently forecast. Wind shear is then forecast to increase Wednesday through Thursday as upper level winds strengthen over the system. This should lead to steady weakening, with the tropical cyclone becoming a remnant low Friday or Friday night. The intensity forecast was adjusted upward from the previous advisory and follows a blend of the SHIPS, IVCN and HWRF guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 12.4N 140.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 12.9N 139.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 13.8N 139.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 14.7N 139.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 15.6N 139.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 16.8N 141.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 17.0N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z 17.0N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW