Hurricane season is here in Hawaii and preparation is very important. Have your emergency supplies ready, just in case. The following tropical storm is currently in the Eastern Pacific heading west and expected to become a hurricane in the next few days. Current forecasts show the path to go south of the Big Island but, of course, that can change. Impact from this storm would begin early next week. Stay tuned to KNKR, 96.1fm and here online.
Tropical Depression Six-E
900 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017
Convection associated with the low pressure area located well south
of the Baja California peninsula has become better organized this
afternoon and evening, with recent microwave images showing a
well-defined curved band wrapping around the western portion of the
circulation. Based on the improvement in organization, the system
is being classified as a tropical depression. The initial wind speed
is set to 30 kt, which is a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates
of 25 and 35 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively.
The depression is currently in an environment of light northeasterly
shear and over warm sea surface temperatures. Although the global
models do not show significant deepening, the statistical guidance
(SHIPS and LGEM) and regional hurricane models (HWRF and CTCX)
predict steady strengthening, with the regional models making the
system a major hurricane by the end of the forecast period. Given
the low shear and warm waters ahead, the NHC forecast calls for
steady intensification and lies close to HCCA consensus model.
The depression is moving westward at about 10 kt. A large mid- to
upper-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone is forecast
to build westward over the next several days. This should keep the
cyclone on a general westward heading throughout the five-day
forecast period. The models are in good agreement on the steering
pattern and the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the
guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 12.2N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 12.2N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 12.2N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 12.3N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 12.4N 117.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 12.5N 121.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 12.5N 127.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 12.5N 132.8W 85 KT 100 MPH