Comparing the path from 8am to 11am, it has moved slightly East and closer to Kohala. Stay alert; be prepared. KNKR will be live on air with continuing updates.
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 22 2018 ...HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REMAIN VULNERABLE AS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LANE PASSES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 155.9W ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 22 2018 Lane continues to be a very impressive hurricane. As of the 1800 UTC analysis time, the cloud pattern had improved over the last several hours with clearing and warming in the eye, and convection becoming more symmetric around the eyewall. Satellite intensity estimates from PHFO, JTWC, and SAB were unanimous at 6.5, and CIMSS-ADT had 6.3. A 1613z SSMIS pass showed the inner core remains very well defined, and there has been a considerable amount of lightning in the eyewall over the past several hours. In deference to the recent trends, we elected to maintain Lane at 135 kt for this advisory. Since the analysis time, the eye has cooled again somewhat and deep convection around the center has become a little more asymmetric. The initial motion has slowed a bit and is now 295/7. Lane continues to be steered toward the west-northwest by a deep layer ridge to the northeast of the tropical cyclone. By 36 hours, the ridge is expected begin building to the southeast and south of Lane, which will begin to impart a more northward motion through at least 48 hours. By 72 hours, the track guidance begins to show a leftward turn, as the low level circulation of Lane decouples in the face of 35 to 40 kt of shear. Exactly when this critical turn will happen is very difficult to forecast, so confidence in this portion of the track is unfortunately rather low. However, our most reliable global models, the ECMWF and GFS, suggest this may happen a little later than previously forecast. Thus, the track forecast has been shifted to the northeast between 48 and 72 hours to be in better agreement with the global models. The UW-CIMSS shear analysis shows that Lane is located within an area of moderate southwesterly shear. The tropical cyclone is expected to begin moving under increasing shear in the coming days which is expected to start a long-awaited weakenening trend. Around 72 hours or so, the shear is expected to weaken the core of the tropical cyclone enough to initiate more rapid weakening that is shown for the remainder of the forecast period. Our intensity forecast is at the high end of the guidance, in best agreement with the ECMWF. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lane is forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as a hurricane tomorrow through Saturday, potentially bringing damaging winds. As Lane will be slow-moving as it nears the islands, prolonged heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be possible. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed shorelines, along with localized storm surge. 2. As Lane approaches the islands from the southeast, initial impacts will be felt on the Big Island and Maui County, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Impacts on Kauai County and Oahu are also possible, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect there. 3. Do not focus on the exact forecast track or intensity for Lane, and be prepared for adjustments to the forecast. Life threatening impacts can extend well away from the center of a hurricane.